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Palm oil and likely futures: Assessing the potential impacts of zero deforestation commitments and a moratorium on large-scale oil palm plantations in Indonesia

機(jī)譯：棕櫚油和可能的期貨：評(píng)估零毀林承諾和暫停對(duì)印度尼西亞大規(guī)模油棕種植園的潛在影響

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摘要

This brief examines two contrasting policy options: the implementation of zero deforestation commitments by the private sector and a complete moratorium on the expansion of large-scale oil palm plantations, and compares them to a situation without policy action.\ud The zero deforestation commitments and the moratorium on large-scale oil palm plantations expansion could reduce cumulative deforestation by 25% and 28%, respectively, compared to a situation without policy action. They could also cut greenhouse gas emissions from land use and land-use change by 13% and 16%, respectively, over the period 2010-2030.\ud Even under the zero-deforestation and moratorium scenarios, Indonesia is projected to increase palm oil production between 124%-97% over 2010-2030, which is partly due to higher production originating from smallholders.\ud Both measures – the zero deforestation commitments and a moratorium of future large-scale oil palm plantations expansion – would be especially beneficial to limit future deforestation in Indonesia in a context in which global demand for palm oil is expected to keep increasing.\ud Foresight tools can equip stakeholders and policy makers with data and information to allow for evidence-based policy making. This will permit planning for reducing deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions, and finding options acceptable to all stakeholders involved.
機(jī)譯：本摘要研究了兩種截然不同的政策選擇：私營(yíng)部門執(zhí)行零森林砍伐承諾和完全暫停大規(guī)模油棕種植園的擴(kuò)張，并將它們與沒有采取政策行動(dòng)的情況進(jìn)行比較。\ ud零森林砍伐承諾和與沒有采取政策措施的情況相比，暫停大規(guī)模油棕種植園可分別減少25％和28％的累計(jì)森林砍伐。他們還可以在2010-2030年期間將土地利用和土地利用變化帶來的溫室氣體排放量分別減少13％和16％。\ ud即使在零森林砍伐和暫停實(shí)施的情況下，印尼也有望增加棕櫚油2010-2030年間的產(chǎn)量介于124％-97％之間，部分原因是小農(nóng)帶來的更高產(chǎn)量。\ ud這兩項(xiàng)措施（零森林砍伐承諾和暫停未來大規(guī)模油棕種植園的擴(kuò)張）將特別有利于在全球棕櫚油需求預(yù)計(jì)將持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)的情況下，限制印尼未來的森林砍伐。\ ud前瞻性工具可以為利益相關(guān)者和政策制定者提供數(shù)據(jù)和信息，以便制定循證決策。這將允許進(jìn)行規(guī)劃以減少森林砍伐和溫室氣體排放，并找到所有相關(guān)利益方可以接受的選擇。

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